DIVA Model



The DIVA Model is an integrated, state-of the-art research model of coastal systems that assesses biophysical and socio-economic consequences of sea-level rise and socio-economic development taking into account coastal erosion (both direct and indirect), coastal flooding (including rivers), wetland change and salinity intrusion into deltas and estuaries, as well as adaptation in terms of raising dikes and nourishing shores and beaches.

DIVA is co-developed amongst a number of European research institutions including the Global Climate Forum (GCF) (Jochen Hinkel, Daniel Lincke), University of Southampton (Robert J. Nicholls, Sally Brown), Kiel University (Athanasios T. Vafeidis), University of Sussex (Richard S.J. Tol) and Cambridge University Coastal Research Unit (Tom Spencer). The GCF coordinates this development and maintains the DIVA Model code.

Figure 1: The coastline of the world as used in the DIVA model.


DIVA 1.0 was released in 2004 as part of a user-friendly policy exploration tool in the EC-funded project DINAS-COAST (Dynamic and Interactive Assessment of National, Regional and Global Vulnerability of Coastal Zones to Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise). This tool is no longer available due to a lack of resources for maintaining and supporting the software. The underlying DIVA model has been substantially further developed into a state-of-the-art research model applicable for assessing coastal impacts and adaptation at global, regional and national scales (Vafeidis et al. 2008; Hinkel et al. 2013; Hinkel et al. 2014; Spencer et al. forthcoming). The current version of DIVA is 5.1 and development is ongoing.



Jochen Hinkel



Spencer, T., M. Schuerch, R. J. Nicholls, J. Hinkel, D. Lincke, A.T. Vafeidis, R. Reef, L. McFadden, S. Brown (2016). Global coastal wetland change under sea-level rise and related stresses: The DIVA Wetland Change Model. Global and Planetary Change 139, p. 15-30. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.12.018

Wolff, C., A.T. Vafeidis, D. Lincke, C. Marasmi, J. Hinkel (2016). Effects of scale and input data on assessing the future impacts of coastal flooding: An application of DIVA for the Emilia-Romagna coast. Frontiers in Marine Science 3(41). DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2016.00041

Hinkel, J., C. C. Jaeger, R. J. Nicholls, J. Lowe, O. Renn, and S. Peijun (2015b). Sea-level rise scenarios and coastal risk management. Nature Climate Change 5. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2505

Hinkel, J., D. Lincke, A. T. Vafeidis, M. Perrette, R. J. Nicholls, R. S. J. Tol, B. Marzeion, X. Fettweis, C. Ionescu, and A. Levermann (2014). Coastal flood damage and adaptation cost under 21st century sea-level rise. In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Published ahead of print February 3, 2014. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1222469111.

Arnell, N. W., J. A. Lowe, S. Brown, S. N. Gosling, P. Gottschalk, J. Hinkel, B. Lloyd-Hughes, R. J. Nicholls, T. J. Osborn, T. M. Osborne, G. A. Rose, P. Smith, and R. F. Warren (2013). A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change. In: Nature Clim. Change 3, pp. 512–519. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1793.

Hinkel, J., D. P. van Vuuren, R. J. Nicholls, and R. J. T. Klein (2013). The effects of mitigation and adaptation on coastal impacts in the 21st century. In: Climatic Change 117, 17:783–794. doi: 10.1007/s10584-012-0564-8.

Hinkel, J., S. Brown, L. Exner, R. J. Nicholls, A. T. Vafeidis, and A. S. Kebede (2011). Sea-level rise impacts on Africa and the effects of mitigation and adaptation: an application of DIVA. In: Regional Environmental Change 12, pp. 207–224. doi: 10.1007/s10113-011-0249-2.

Pardaens, A. K., J. A. Lowe, S. Brown, R. J. Nicholls, and D. de Gusmão (2011). Sea-level rise and impacts projections under a future scenario with large greenhouse gas emission reductions. In: Geophysical Research Letters 38 (12). doi: 10.1029/2011GL047678.

Hinkel, J., R. J. Nicholls, A. Vafeidis, R. S. J. Tol, and T. Avagianou (2010). Assessing risk of and adaptation to sea-level rise in the European Union: an application of DIVA. In: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 5.7, pp. 1–17. doi: 10.1007/s11027-010-9237-y.

Nicholls, R. J., N. Marinova, J. A. Lowe, S. Brown, P. Vellinga, D. de Gusmao, J. Hinkel, and R. S. J. Tol (2010). Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a “beyond 4 degree world” in the 21st Century. In: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society 369, pp. 161–181. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0291.

Hinkel, J. and R. J. T. Klein (2009). Integrating knowledge to assess coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise: The development of the DIVA tool. In: Global Environmental Change 19.3, pp. 384–395. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.03.002.

Vafeidis, A. T., R. J. Nicholls, L. McFadden, R. S. J. Tol, J. Hinkel, T. Spencer, P. S. Grashoff, G. Boot, and R. J. T. Klein (2008). A new global coastal database for impact and vulnerability analysis to sea-level rise. In: Journal of Coastal Research 24.4, pp. 917–924. doi: 10.2112/06-0725.1.

Hinkel, J. (2005). DIVA: an iterative method for building modular integrated models. In: Advances in Geosciences 4, pp. 45–50.



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